OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2020


First, a message from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences:

Dear Black People (and gals of all colors),

The recent history of the Oscar nominations may have led you to believe that we at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had finally evolved (we hear you call it ‘woke’?) with the rest of popular culture. In the spirit of comradery and mansplaining, we should inform you that our seeming embrace of films like Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave and Black Panther was simply our way of thanking Obama for not ruining the economy. As for films about women we have recognized, they were mostly made by men. Gay men, admittedly, but there is still a penis involved. 

This year, our roster of nominees has returned to a more familiar form. While we know that may not please everyone, we are a prestigious Academy, and we do not grade on a curve. As brilliant writer and proven money-maker Stephen King thankfully reminded us, the Art must always come first. 

Little Women does have 6 nominations. We didn’t particularly like Little Women, but it was the only female film this year that did not scare us, and bones must be thrown, or else the nominees’ luncheon gets really uncomfortable. Unfortunately, we could not throw a bone to the film’s lady director, as the five slots were full with men who all made movies that glorified the highest expression of Art in film – violence and bloodshed. But please know that Mrs. Baumbach was #6 with a bullet!

We remain fully open to excellence from people of color (that’s ‘correct’, right?) and those with vaginas, and look forward to your attempts in the coming year.

Regards (but nothing more)

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

ORIGINAL SONG

I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away from Toy Story 4: Disney, next time Randy Newman hands you music, please throw it away. 

Into the Unknown from Frozen II: China won’t recycle our trash anymore, so let’s use Oscar’s Best Song list!

I’m Standing with You from Breakthrough: These Christian-themed ‘inspirational’ films are what the term ‘god-awful’ was invented for. 

Stand Up from Harriet: Oschoir: noun: a song that plays during the end titles of an Oscar-bait movie about overcoming hardship. Involves a gospel choir and uplifting lyrics that would have made Maya Angelou gag. Usage: “That song ‘Stand Up for Something’ from Selma was so Oschoir.”

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

(I’m Still Standing and Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman: This is one dismal Best Song list. Any of these could have been recorded in 1995 and you’d never know the difference. Elton John does his part by cobbling together his old chestnuts and putting them in Taron Egerton’s mouth. 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Marriage Story: Oh, alright, if y’all insist…it started with Adam and me meetin’ cute at a driving range. He’d taken up golf for his role as Tiger Woods in Noah Baumbach’s On Course for Divorce, and I was trying out a new hobby after my woeful attempt at pottery, which Adam pretended to like (he’s such a good actor, LOL!). One thing led to another, and next thing you know, he breaks my nose in a fight over the subtext of Kafka’s Metamorphosis and pins it back together with an engagement ring!

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: I only got a rise during this film when Adam Driver or Oscar Isaac were on screen.

Little Women: 6; Old Men: 44

19-17: The score of the Superbowl? I didn’t watch because my mom told me JLo is a slut.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Joker: “Alexa, play Frank Sinatra, but ironically.”

MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Angelina: Mistress of Evil: If you were wondering what Jennifer Aniston was doing before The Morning Show, she was in charge of naming Disney movies.  

1,917: Number of times this movie ripped off Gallipoli.

Juker: Since both Judy and Joker are nominated for smeary clown make-up, I’ve combined them into one film, in which an amphetamined-to-the-gills Garland shoots Ed Sullivan in the face while singing ‘Come On, Get Happy’. 

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Bombshell: Imagine asking old pervert Hollywood bosses for money to make a film about old pervert Fox News bosses. Big surprise, there was no budget to do frame-by-frame computer effects to make lead Charlize Theron look like Megyn Kelly. It was all left to the make-up people, and their work was crazy exact.

COSTUME DESIGN

The Irishman: When costumer Sandy Powell asked Scorsese what he wanted, he thought she was the lunch assistant and ordered a baked potato. 

Once Up…on a Time in Hollywood: For authenticity, Lena Dunham wore her own dirty nightgown in this movie, which she claimed was the result of a bear trying to molest her. She later recanted, admitting it was just a bad night with a bag of Oreo thin mints.

Jojo Rabbit: Bedazzled Nazi uniforms. Tyrolean rompers that would make Wes Anderson jealous. Little touches of crazy added to things we’ve seen many times before was the strategy behind every aspect of this film, and made for the most memorable costuming on this list. 

Little Women: Nicely done bridesmaids dresses won’t get you to the altar, when the altar is covered in blood.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Joker: An Oscar for a maroon suit from Buffalo Exchange. Wow. I need to change careers. 

SOUND EDITING

Joker: He’s a smoker and a midnight toker. 

Once Upon a Time, in Hollywood: In this Tarantino fairy tale, 3 Little Pigs share a house off Laurel Canyon. They hear a wolf huffing and puffing at their door, and, assuming it’s the fisting escort they’d hired, invite him in. You can imagine what’s next, and imagine it to a Shirley Bassey b-side.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: And the Fall of JJ Abrams, hopefully.

Ford < Ferrari: Spoiler alert.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:       

1917: Out of 2000, the number of male Academy members who will vote for a war movie, no matter how repetitive, over anything else. The other 83 are gay.

SOUND MIXING

Ad Astra: Do not take Adastra if you are pregnant or nursing. Adastra may cause suicidal thoughts or feelings because you will never have Brad Pitt.

Joker: Remember how that serial killer in Silence of the Lambs danced with his junk tucked? Now think of Joaquin dancing as the Joker. Coincidence?

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: This was a very sound mixing of failure and pandering. 

Ford x Ferrari ÷ generic Viagra = Dodge Viper

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

1917: 213 x 9  

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King: Big deal. There’s a cat on the internet that says “Well, hi!” without any special effects.

The Irishman: You’ve been to the Beverly Hills Hamburger Hamlet (RIP), Marty. You know old male actors are willing to get facelifts. You could have spent all that de-aging budget on editing.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: This is the last time we will hear from this particular franchise at the Oscars. Let us bow our heads, because we won’t be raising them to see anyone going up on stage. However, it’s overall Oscar tally is 38 nominations and 10 wins. Not bad.

Avengers: Endgame: Another franchise bowing out this year, but it never got the respect the Star Wars and Lord of the Rings/Hobbit ones did. The work of all those countless, talented special effects artists over the Avengers films should have been rewarded this year, but I guess bringing a comic book to life doesn’t compare to ripping off someone else’s film…

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

.1917: The aspect ratio for a 360-degree camera pan of a scene that you ripped off from someone else’s film.

FILM EDITING

Jojo Rabbit: Enjoy these nominations now, Taika, because as soon as you start doing Marvel films, you’ll never put on a tux again.

An Irishman: a joker and two popes walk into a bar. The Irishman molests the joker and the Popes send him to a remote parish in Chile.

Parasite: Every aspect of this movie was razor sharp, and creating relentless suspense without jump-scares shows masterful editing. But subtle work rarely wins here anymore.

Ford v Ferrari: Why did they cut the ‘s’ off ‘vs’? Was it too girly? 

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Joker: Oh, look, something else gets to win a technical award because voters thought 1917 was actually one single shot. Ha, Joke’s on them, and 1917.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Irishman: This movie looks like no one told Marty to flip up the sun shades clipped to his glasses. 

Jojo Rabbit: Wes Anderson slums it as a production designer? The Goldfinch could have used him, along with an entire different cast, crew, studio and source material.

Parasite: I love a house where the appliances are hidden better than the starving family in the basement.

Once Upon a Time in Holly…wood: No one recreates the years 1959 to 1973 better than QT.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

1917º Kelvin: The temperature in hell. Bring your little handheld fan, Rush. 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Lighthouse: If you want to see want jizz looks like in black-and-white, you’ve cum to the right movie.

The Irishman: If you want to see what Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci look like in brown, you’ve come to the right movie.

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood: Filmed in the sunset glow of old ideas and the men who won’t let them go.

Joker: It takes a brave cinematographer to make something look this ugly.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

19.17”: The height of an Oscar if you set it on top of a DVD of Gallipoli.

DOCUMENTARY

The Edge of Democracy: Get ready for the most downer Best Doc list in years. Here, a frightening and depressing look at Brazil constantly destroying its stabs at democracy.

The Cave: The Last Men in Aleppo, nominated here two years ago, was about the White Helmets, doctors risking their lives every day to help the residents of a Syrian town besieged by the Russian-backed Syrian army. Russian bots attacked the filmmaker via social media, suggesting he was tied to Isis and sinking the chance that this important film and the heroes it championed got Oscar recognition. It was criminal, and Oscar has a chance this year to make up for it.

Honeyland: This is about a greedy, stupid man abusing bees. #beetoo

For Sama: Another film focusing on the Syrian tragedy, this time centered around a female Syrian journalist. Do the right thing, Hollywood, give the prize to an important film about scores of people being murdered and left homeless everyday, instead of always focusing on American troubles, like…

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

American Factory: This is about GM and the plant workers whose lives they toy with in both Ohio and China. The sympathy should go to the Syrians or the bees, but none of them are Americans.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Klaus: The infamous Von Bulow patriarch gets the animated treatment. He’s making a list of poisons, and checking it twice!

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: This was originally an educational film teaching adolescent boys how to jerk off in their closet. 

The Missing Link: I believe this was a nickname Hannah used for Adam in Girls. I told Lena it wasn’t her best writing, because he doesn’t have the hair all over his body. Just in the best places, am I right, Hoho?

I Lost My Body: This is about a severed arm that escapes a hospital to search for its body. It is crazy clever, completely engrossing, and of course not made by a big American studio. Thank you, Netflix.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Toy Story 4: Hey, Buzz, if you really want to get to Woody, call him a self-congratulatory waste of cotton batting. I say this to Tom Hanks all the time and he haaaates it.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Corpus Christi (Poland): Uh, news flash, Oscar. Corpus Christi is in Texas.

Honeyland (North Macedonia): There’s enough Macedonia to have a North?

No Room at the UN (West Palestine): Not nominated, but deserves recognition.

Peace Plan, LOL (East Israel): With a premise even Yahweh is rolling his eyes at, this wannabe masterpiece directed by Jared Kushner went over like Edward Norton’s directing career.

Pain and Glory (Spain): Proving to be the over-the-hill Catholic schoolgirl we always knew he was, Pedro Almodovar’s autobiographical movie has Antonio Banderas unable to resist prescription drugs but too timid to get it on with any of the hot men that come his way.

Les Miserables (France): Anne Hathaway’s wig from Les Miz stars in its own production, where it runs from the law after getting frosted tips.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Parasite (South Korea): The surest thing in a year of sure things.

WRITING: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Two Popes: Godly men ignore abuse.

Joker: Abused man becomes violent.

The Irishman: Violent man gains power.

Little Women: (How’d they get in here?)

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Jojo Rabbit: An innocent survives a world taken over by violent men. Then he becomes an altar boy, and we’re back to the top of the list.

WRITING: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1917: The original screenplay for 1917 was called Gallipoli.

Knives Out: Oh, just wait until I get to Best Actor…

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: Yes, Academy, things were so much better back in those days. It’s hippies what ruined Hollywood, not rapey studio bosses.

Marriage Story: God, our honeymoon, don’t get me started. Adam was all into Alaska, so he could catch spawning salmon in his teeth. I reminded him I was vegan and that pea protein burgers don’t spawn (until they’re in your stomach), so he called me a snowflake, which is a huge trigger word for me, and he knows that. He knows that! We ended up cancelling the honeymoon, and just stayed home with our favorite pastime, which is comparing how much longer Adam’s big toe is than mine. You have to see it. It’s like three basketball-player’s thumbs. And now you know why I’ll never leave him.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Parasite: The category is called original1917. This is how original is done.

DIRECTOR

Todd PhillipsJoker: With the refreshing exception of Bong Joon Ho, every director on this list loads us onto a studio tour bus and throws stuff at the windows so we gasp. Scorsese and Tarantino take the longer route, to make sure we feel reverence for their history before we get the cheap thrills. Phillips and Mendes drive right to the stunts and don’t let up for a second, lest we get bored and realize their narratives are either cliché, or in this case, contradictory.

Martin ScorseseThe Irishman: Like your grandfather telling a story that takes forever and is only worth tolerating if you like him.

Quentin TarantinoOnce Upon a Time…in Hollywood: Here’s what this movie feels like: Quentin T is pacing around on his deck, looking out over Hollywood, for like three hours, deciding whether he’ll go to Formosa Cafe or Chasen’s for dinner. Then it’s too late so he just throws some raw meat in a blender.

Bong Joon HoParasite: Every bit as perfectly choreographed as 1917, as shocking as Joker, as tragically resigned as Irishman, and as darkly funny as OUATIH. And its presentation of the human condition is more nuanced, original and relevant than any of them. But too many voters will see all that as a screenplay triumph – a prize Bong will certainly get – so they can give Director to the guy who speaks the King’s English and spent more time with the cameramen and editors than the writer and actors. 

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Sam Mendes1917: It’s sad when technical proficiency with bombast trumps emotional proficiency with people. And it’s hard getting so pissed off at the director of American Beauty and Skyfall, but why did he have to pick this project at a time when it’s especially crucial that big-budget movies tell fresh stories? 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: How long did it take for poor King Friday to get used to Mr. Roger’s hand jammed up him? And now he’s gotta have Tom Hanks doing it?

Anthony HopkinsThe Two Popes: One Pope, Two Pope; Young Pope, New Pope! This one talks to God the most; this one lets abusers coast. Say, what a lot of Popes to roast!

Al PacinoThe Irishman: Robert DeNiro was the Irishman. Al Pacino was Al Pacino.

Joe PesciThe Italian American: “Would my nonna have been a better cook if she ever bothered to leave her kitchen? No.” Says Joe Pesci when asked to play someone born outside the 5 boroughs.

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Brad PittOnce Upon a Time…in Hollywood: Alright, finally! I can root for Brad with my head instead of my pee-pee.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kathy BatesRichard’s Jewells: Bates plays a mother who keeps her son from date-raping by smashing his nuts with a meat-tenderizer. Along with Uncut Jims, the Adam Sandler comedy about a gay doctor searching England for uncircumcised men named James (there are a lot), this has been an oddly genitalia-obsessed year for movies.

Florence PughLittle Women: Florence Pugh is not a documentary about a garbage-collectors strike in Tuscany. She’s an actress. And the best thing about Little Women.

Scarlett JohanssonScarjo Rabbit: This movie is about Peter Rabbit’s hot new girlfriend. Due to the PG13 rating, Peter and ScarJo only kiss like rabbits.

Margot RobbieBombshell: Always a solid, likeable actress, I used to feel the acclaim for Robbie was graded on her curves. But her two big scenes in Bombshell rose well above anything else in this rather flat, procedural movie. 

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Laura DernMarriage Story: Adam didn’t like that I wanted to keep my maiden name, but I said Fritz Driver sounds like a tool you use to put Ikea furniture together. We compromised on Fritz W. Driver, thanks to our lawyer, Renata Dern, who is brilliant and overdue for an Oscar.

ACTOR

Antonio BanderasPain and Glory: You know him as Melanie Griffith’s arm candy, but did you know he was also a talking pussy?

Jonathan Pryce,The Two Popes: They say this is the ‘long overdue’ narrative this year, but, um, does anyone remember this guy from a movie? Pirates of the Caribbean? He was in that, somewhere. Glengarry GlenRoss? He’s on the cast list. Evita? Was he Madonna’s back-up dancer?

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood: Leo, when you’re done yelling at hippies, can you clear up this ellipsis business for me? It’s after ‘in’ on the posters, but grammar-police writers keep putting it after ‘time’, and Google takes it out altogether! 

Adam DriverMarriage Story: I told Adam that looking like a cross between Attila the Hun and a minotaur is why I married him, and that Noah would think he has presence. Well, I was right, and he’s taken this role all the way to Oscar’s door. Good job, honey!

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Joaquin PhoenixJoker: If it wasn’t for Joaquin showing off, I’d be polishing Adam’s golden boy in the fancy port-a-potty outside Elton John’s party come Oscar night.

ACTRESS

Cynthia ErivoHarriet: The Academy can only see black female performances through Rosa Parks-colored glasses. If you’re not oppressed, abused, or work with a broom, you’re not Oscar material. 

Saoirse RonanLittle Women: Baby Streep strikes again (nomination #4 at 25 years old), playing another character who ruins hearts and lives then pretends it’s not her fault. Whoever’s making the Susan Collins biopic (The Handmaid’s Tale IV: Ofmitch), we’ve got your actress!

Charlize Theron Bombshell!: “Sean Penn used to make me dress like Fidel Castro and put my cigar out on his nipples.” 

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story: When Adam and I double d’ed with Scarlett and Colin recently, I told her, “You are the only Best Actress nominee who didn’t have copious amounts of filmed or written material to help you craft your character. Renee got to watch Meet Me in St. Louis 400 times, which I do for fun.”

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Renee ZellwegerJudy: Renee has gotten so much praise for this movie that she’s decided all her movies from now on will be called Judy. Next up, the famous TV judge, who in this version only tries cases about botched plastic surgery.

BEST PICTURE

Ford v Ferrari: Bookending this Best Picture list as most-likely and least-likely to win are two films that indicate the Academy’s old white man taste still rules. This film had an underlying theme of individual v corporation, but it was still all about men swinging their dicks around.

Little Women: It’s ‘Height-Challenged’ Women, Greta, jeez. And you wonder why you weren’t nominated…

Marriage Story: Maybe Adam outgrew me. Hell, maybe I outgrew him. Maybe I didn’t want to live in his 6’3”, broad-shouldered shadow anymore. Maybe I needed some light for myself. But dammit, best-friend-played-by-Busy-Phillips-or-Judy-Greer, I still miss him.

The Irishman: Pissed off at being asked by young whipper-snapper studio suits why he needed 3 ½ hours to tell yet another gangster story, Marty stormed over to Netflix, took every million they threw at him, then shit on Marvel for crowding his franchise film out of theaters for their franchise film.

Jojo Rabbit: Silly fascists, swastikas are for kids! And for voters who want something different but not with subtitles.

Joker: However you feel about the movie, at least it dares to go new places. I’m talking to you, Irishman and 1917.

Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood: Surprised to find Quentin Tarantino in the #3 sweet spot that preferential voting always leaves? He’s not. By calming down and taking aging Academy voters on a leisurely drive through a Hollywood they all miss so much – with two big, likeable movie stars at that – he’s made fans of those who felt his non-stop violence was always a bit much. If Parasite’s porridge is too cold (in other words, ‘intelligent’) and 1917’s too hot (grabbing all the awards way too fast), OUATIH could be just right.

Parasite: Clever, surprising and executed flawlessly, Parasite’s genre-bending social commentary has chalked up considerable wins in lead-up awards. But there are old fuck Academy members literally publishing articles that insist the Best Picture must always be an English-speaking film. This is America, and subtitles are for foreigners and commies with 20/20 vision.

AND THE BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR IS NOT:

1917: Talk about 2020 vision, and lack of it. 1917 is nostalgia, wartime heroics, British accents, and the kind of far-fetched thrills and chills typically relegated to Indiana Jones movies (surprise, this is produced by Spielberg). It also cheats by using an impressive filming technique to distract us from the fact that it follows the EXACT same plot as Gallipoli, right down to the callous English high-ups treating the enlisted men as target dummies. Since the Academy has such a hard-on for killing, I suggest they do it to the Oscars. At this point, gay as I am, I wouldn’t miss them.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s